The ICARE – International Center for Agribusiness Research and Education

invites you to participate in a training on

Forecasting for Agribusiness Executives

conducted by

Lena Mamikonyan

Dates

The 3-day intensive training will take place on March 1-3, 2017.

Venue

International Center for Agribusiness Research and Education (ICARE).

Address: 74 Teryan Street, 0009 Yerevan.

 Time

18:30 – 20:45, (this includes a coffee break). For details, see the agenda below.

 Working language

The working language of the training will be Armenian; however, the PowerPoint slides will be in English.

 Level

Intermediate. Participants are not expected to be intimately familiar with forecasting; however, it is recommended that they have a basic background in statistics (regression analysis) and Microsoft Excel.

 Training participation fee

The training is free of charge. While similar hands-on trainings are quite expensive, ICARE fully covers the associated expenses for the participants, thus staying true to its charitable, social, scientific, and educational commitments. Upon successful completion of the training, the participants will be awarded a certificate of participation. To qualify for the certificate, participants must be present in all the sessions.

 Training description

Forecasting is an important tool at the disposal of executives at small and large agribusiness companies for successful decision-making. In this hands-on training, the participants will familiarize themselves with different quantitative models used to generate forecasts of the objects of interest (for example, GDP, prices, quantity sold, sales, costs, interest rates, exchange rates etc.). The distinctive feature of this training is that it will focus on different quantitative models for developing both deterministic or point (without risk) and interval or stochastic (risk included) forecasts. The forecasting models include regression-based models to capture linear and non-linear trends, structural variation, seasonality, cyclical variation, and random variation.

 Target audience

The purpose of this training is to equip participants with practical skills to assist them in making educated economic decisions in a business context. This training extensively uses regression-based forecasting techniques applied to various sample datasets and is intended for business executives, business consultants, business analysts, economists, policymakers, senior-level economics and business students, and other interested parties that do forecasting and risk analysis in any type of production or service industry (agribusiness, banking, consulting, food industry, production, wholesaling/retailing, tourism etc.).

 Expected outcomes

After completing this training, participants will be able to:

• Recognize the patterns (trend, seasonality, cyclical variation, and random variation) displayed by the data.
• Develop various appropriate regression-based forecasting models.
• Estimate the model (or models), decide on the best model and interpret the results.
• Produce both point and interval forecasts.
• Make recommendations to business managers to facilitate their decision-making process.
• Be proficient in using Simetar (Excel add-in) for forecasting purposes.

Software

An Excel add-in Simetar© will be used. The trial copy of the complete Simetar© with all the functionality and capabilities of the single-user license will be installed on your notebook by the training organizers before the start of the training free of charge which will operate for 30 days.

 Presentation methods

A combination of PowerPoint presentations and in-class computer exercises will be used (the participants must bring their own notebooks to every session). The participants will be provided with training material ahead of time. A dynamic discussion and exchange of ideas through interactive class participation will be strongly encouraged.

Trainer

Ms. Mamikonyan received her Master’s degree in Agribusiness and Marketing from Armenian National Agrarian University. Currently, she works as an instructor and graduate research and teaching assistant in the Master of Agribusiness (MAB) program at the Armenian National Agrarian University. She assists in teaching graduate courses such as Econometrics and Managerial Economics, and teaches Agribusiness Analysis and Forecasting in the MAB program. Also, she works as a manager of programs at the Union of Credit Organizations of RA (UCORA).

Agenda

March 1
Time	Topics
18:30 – 19:30	Introduction to the concept of risk and forecasting
19:30 – 19:45	Coffee break
19:45 – 20:45	Trend (linear and non-linear) regression forecasts
March 2
Time	Topics
18:30 – 19:30	Structural variation model
19:30 – 19:45	Coffee break
19:45 – 20:45	Seasonal forecasts using dummy variables Moving average forecasts
March 3
Time	Topics
18:30 – 19:30	Seasonal forecasts using harmonic regressions Cyclical forecasts using harmonic regressions
19:30 – 19:45	Coffee break
19:45 – 20:45	Time-series analysis